AVELLINO: This election, do something
There are seven days until Election Day. That is not a lot of time! But it is not nothing, either.
In case you do not obsess over the numbers like I do, this is going to be a really close election. As of October 26, FiveThirtyEight's model gives the convicted felon and alleged rapist, former President Donald J. Trump, a 54 percent chance of winning back the White House. The Silver Bulletin, run by former FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver, also deems the race as a coin toss.
Polls have shown a consistent and steady lead for Vice President Kamala Harris among the national electorate. But that nationwide lead has been shrinking over the past couple of weeks, and the polls among relevant swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — show a neck-and-neck race.
This is extremely frustrating to me but not surprising. In a highly polarized environment such as the one we are in, landslide victories are simply not possible. That might irritate some people — we are no longer capable of having a nationally unanimous moment in our politics — but think about what would really have to happen for you to vote for the opposite party for president of the U.S.
My views are more moderate than many of my friends, but I am still a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat. It would take something truly strange or extraordinary for me to flip my vote to the team that is promising mass deportations of our neighbors and stripping away women's control over their bodies.
Multiply that effect by 330 million people, and it is no surprise that the fate of the entire universe is up to thousands of voters across seven states.
So the election is going to be very close. And, if you really had to make me bet right now, I would say that Trump is the slight favorite. That might be me seeing ghosts from 2016 — the fear that the polls are underestimating Trump again — though Silver convincingly explains that a polling error could go either way. But it is where I am at. And that sucks.
But I still have time to do something about it! And so do you.
I love looking at the numbers, polls and statistics of an election because I love politics and need better hobbies. But there is another type of person who obsesses over these forecasts: the person who feels tremendous anxiety over every election and needs to find some comfort that their candidate is more likely to win. That is not happening this cycle. If you are a Republican, your odds are only very slightly favored. If you are a Democrat, you are the underdog.
None of that is changing in seven days.
What can change is the individual amount of work you put into this election, even if it is minuscule or feels immaterial.
Because "doomism," the belief that everything is doomed and therefore nothing you do will make a difference, sucks. It is also probably incorrect in most aspects of life that people feel "doomed" for: the climate is not irreparably harmed, technology is not going to eradicate humanity and individuals can really make a difference in political campaigns! And you can, too.
I love getting involved in politics for lots of reasons. For one, I love to complain. My whole column is generally me whining about the world and what I want to see changed. And getting involved in the election gives me infinitely more right to complain about a bad result than those who do not participate at all.
Making phone calls for Sue Altman, the executive director of the New Jersey Working Families Alliance and a competitive challenger in New Jersey's only swing district, gives me a much greater right to complain if her opponent loses because I actually tried to stop it.
Knocking on doors in Philadelphia for Harris, who is neck-and-neck with Trump in Pennsylvania and relies on the state to send her back to the White House, allows me to rightfully wail should she lose where others cannot. In the same way, the kid who does not study for the midterm cannot whine when he fails, and non-participants also lose the right to be upset if they do not vote.
Purpose is another reason for getting involved other than being a hater. Everyone finds purpose in doing something meaningful in their lives. One of the reasons I love politics is that it touches every aspect of us. Or, to put it in Gov. Tim Walz's (D-Minn.) words: "Politics is into you!"
There is a real fight happening in the U.S. right now. A lot of people are counting on the results of this election. You and I are counting on more student debt relief. Our friends who recently graduated are counting on cheaper homes. Poor Ukrainian fathers and mothers are counting on our help to defend their homeland from an imperialist invasion. Everyone needs something that you can help give them!
Things are looking pretty bleak right now. The fact that Trump has any shot of being reelected is a sign of serious moral rot in this country. But politics is a slow, messy process of getting things done. And being a foot soldier is much more rewarding than being an armchair general.
Noble Avellino is a senior in the School of Arts and Sciences majoring in economics and minoring in political science. Avellino’s column, “Noble’s Advocate,” runs on Mondays.
*Columns, cartoons, letters and commentaries do not necessarily reflect the views of the Targum Publishing Company or its staff.
YOUR VOICE | The Daily Targum welcomes submissions from all readers. Letters to the editor must be between 350 and 600 words. Commentaries must be between 600 and 900 words. All authors must include their name, phone number, class year and college affiliation or department to be considered for publication. Please submit via email to oped@dailytargum.com and eic@dailytargum.com to be considered for publication.
