State climatologist discusses extreme conditions causing drought, fires across New Jersey
Recently, New Jersey has been facing some of its driest weather conditions in more than 100 years, resulting in minimal rain and increased fires, according to a press release.
Dave Robinson, a New Jersey state climatologist and distinguished professor in the Department of Geography, said that growing up in Tenafly, New Jersey, working at the University and contributing to the efforts of the state's climate office have collectively given him the opportunity to pursue his interests in studying climate change.
"I grew up following New Jersey's weather and climate, and loved doing so as a kid and onward," he said. "Many a meteorologist and climatologist can trace their love of the weather and climate back to their childhood … I've been keeping weather records since I was in fourth grade."
While his expertise mainly lies in the areas of climate change, droughts and flooding, Robinson said he provides the state climate office with the context necessary to drive decisions both at the local and state level.
"We deal with every sector imaginable because everything is somewhat associated with weather and climate … whether it's a short-term climate event or in many cases now, long-term climate change," he said.
Robinson said the implications of the changing climate have become increasingly apparent, approximately over the past 50 years, especially.
"We're getting a more extreme, variable climate," said Robinson. "And it's all taking place on a warmer foundation."
Typically, the state sees periods of increased rainfall, dry seasons and rising temperatures, but the rate at which these changes are occurring is troubling, he said.
High pressure ridges, said Robinson, normally induce dry weather by resisting any moisture in the atmosphere. These ridges occur multiple times throughout the year and last up to three weeks at a stretch, but the duration of the most recent ridge seems prolonged.
"What's particularly interesting about (this period) is how acute, how extreme it's been," he said. "We've virtually had no rain for the last seven to going on eight weeks, and that's unprecedented in records in Jersey … In all of my many, many decades of living in this state, I've never seen anything like it."
Though it is difficult to determine the extent to which climate change played a role in creating this effect, Robinson suspects that it is a combination of climate change and human activity.
Additionally, he said there have been reports of more than 500 wildfires impacting the state since the beginning of last month due in part to the lack of rain. The brittle debris such as leaves and sticks collecting on the forest floors, said Robinson, requires "just the smallest spark" to burn.
He said the current series of weather-related events is similar to that of what occurred in 2002 when the state officially declared a drought emergency. To prevent the current drought warning from escalating to a drought emergency, people must conserve water and maintain our supply.
Being cautious about water preservation will be essential particularly during the winter months, so that water restrictions are not placed on residents over the summer when it is logistically harder to adhere to such limitations, he said.
"We're kind of the epicenter of drought along the East Coast," said Robinson. "New Jersey is one of the faster warming states."
New Jersey's location by the ocean makes it prone to feeling the immediate effects of rising water temperatures, he said.
Ultimately, Robinson said other areas across the country will follow suit as snowfall levels fluctuate in the North and extreme heat reaches states in the South.
"It's really quite remarkable," he said. "Even we seasoned climatologists and meteorologists are quite in awe of what we're seeing this fall."
