RUBIN-STANKIEWICZ: New Jerseyans must vote in 2023 election

The campaign for the 2024 presidential election is seemingly in full swing. There have already been two Republican primary debates, and candidates for Congress are gearing up for the 2024 election year.

But there is a big election coming up this November in New Jersey that is seemingly not getting much attention despite its monumental importance. The voter registration deadline in our state is also approaching quickly, with October 17 being the last date that someone can register to vote in the state's November 2023 election. 

The entire state legislature is up for election this year. While Congress remains gridlocked, state legislatures are where legislation moves. 

An analysis by Quorum from 2016 found that "state legislatures introduce 23 times more bills" on average than the U.S. Congress does and that a higher percentage of the bills they introduce are actually enacted into law. 

But because this is not a presidential or gubernatorial election, voter turnout will likely be substantially lower. State legislative elections tend to draw a little more than half the turnout of presidential elections in New Jersey. 

The impact of the upcoming November election goes beyond the composition of the Legislature. Its true impact is on what happens directly after the election is over, starting with the lame-duck period. 

The lame-duck period refers to the period from post-election November to very early January before the start of the new legislative session. The lame-duck session is the main time, in addition to the state budget season from May to June, when most legislation is passed, especially legislation that is considered to be at all controversial. 

During the 2021 lame-duck session, for instance, 650 bills and resolutions were introduced in the last two months of the session. This means that "a greater percentage of bills and resolutions introduced during lame duck were signed by the governor … than those pre-filed or introduced in the first 22 months of the session," according to Colleen O'Dea's analysis.

The lame-duck session is particularly important because it marks the end of New Jersey's two-year legislative cycle. This means that any bills currently before the state Legislature that do not pass before the end of lame-duck have to be reintroduced in January 2024 and restart their journey through the Legislature. 

For example, if a bill entirely passes through the Assembly but does not make it through the Senate before the end of the lame-duck session, it must be reintroduced in 2024 and be voted on by the full Assembly and its committee(s) all over again. 

Due to the rapid pace at which bills are passed during the lame-duck session, the period is often criticized as being undemocratic because it does not give residents much time to give their opinions on legislation and does not give legislators much time to read bills in depth before they come before the full Legislature for a vote. 

But the period comes right after an election, the results of which greatly shape the narrative of public opinion in the state. This narrative of public opinion directly impacts the state Legislature's actions during this intense period and beyond.

For example, in 2021, former Senate President Steve Sweeney, who had the backing and support of the powerful South Jersey Democratic political machine, lost his seat in the Senate, shocking state political pundits. Seven other Democratic seats flipped Republican as well. 

The governorship, Senate and House all remained under Democratic control in 2021. Although Gov. Phil Murphy (D-N.J.) won by a close margin, he was the first Democratic governor to win a second term in New Jersey in forty years. 

Sweeney was also far from beloved by all Democrats, especially progressives. In 2017, the New Jersey Education Association endorsed Sweeney's Republican opponent, Fran Grenier, and the 527 organization, Garden State Forward, spent more than $5 million trying to remove Sweeney from his seat. 

Regardless, in an article from NJ Advance Media detailing the 2021 election, one of the subheadings for the seven election takeaways read, "A referendum on Murphy's progressivism? And did it take out the more moderate Sweeney?" 

Another post-election NJ Advance Media article debated at length whether Sweeney's ouster from the state Legislature would mean the Democratic party would be "less keen to support a left-leaning or progressive agenda in Murphy's second term for fear of Republicans gaining more power in the future," or if "Sweeney's absence will make it easier for Murphy to install his policies."

The real takeaway from the 2021 election should have been that it represented one of the lowest voter turnouts in a New Jersey gubernatorial election in a century, with only 40 percent of registered voters casting their ballots. This election did not represent the opinions of the majority of New Jersey eligible voters, let alone all residents. 

Regardless of the abnormally low turnout, the state Legislature took the results of that election as a demonstration of public opinion in New Jersey, with many taking away the public perception that the Democratic party should be more moderate. Arguably, the consequences of this perception are still being felt in the Trenton Statehouse to this day. 

A number of bills will move forward in the lame-duck session no matter what. But the results of this election will impact the urgency at which Democratic leadership moves, based on how much power the party has going into the 2024-2025 session.

After the new state Legislature is sworn in, the dominant media narrative of what the election demonstrated about voter public opinion will influence lawmakers' willingness to push forward any legislation they see as controversial. This is especially true if this election leads to a change in the balance of power and party leadership in New Jersey. 

It is understandable to feel that your vote does not matter in this election, especially if you live in a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic or Republican, where the election outcome seems foretold. It is also understandable not to know too much about the state and local elections on your ballot. Vote411 is a good resource to learn more about the candidates running to represent you. 

But this 2023 election will determine not only which party is in power in the Legislature but also the willingness of the leadership to act on that power based on the risk assessment they conduct from the results of this year's election.

We need to ensure that the New Jersey Legislature hears from all of us, not just a small percentage of the voting-eligible population, when making these decisions.

Raisa Rubin-Stankiewicz is a senior in the School of Arts and Sciences majoring in political science and minoring in psychology. Her column, "Rutgers Realities," runs on alternate Thursdays.

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