KUMAR: No-deal Brexit would wreak havoc on British
Column: The Transatlantic Perspective
It has been more than four years since the historical European Union (EU) referendum, which saw the British public vote in favor of the United Kingdom (UK) becoming the first member state to leave the EU single market system.
Now Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was one of the most vocal advocates for the Brexit movement, faces the daunting task of securing a trade deal with prominent European allies before the transition period ends at the end of the year on Dec. 31. Trade negotiations are currently stuck in a rut, forcing many to wonder if the harrowing possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit may become a foregone conclusion.
If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, it wreaks havoc on the country’s economy, the likes of which may exacerbate the already debilitating coronavirus-disease-spurred (COVID-19) recession that has shaken the nation to its core.
In September, Johnson set a soft deadline of Oct. 15 to finalize trade talks with the EU, but he recently faced challenges in his talks with EU representatives and world leaders, which has left all parties in an effective gridlock.
One of the key crucial issues that has caused the trade negotiations to fall through is that of fishing rights in British waters. While the UK has pushed for total sovereignty over its waters, other EU member states argue that this would restrict their fishing industries, which rely heavily on the ability to fish in British territory.
In fact, the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, has stated recently that he would not be willing to strike any deal with the UK unless it makes concessions on fishing rights, fearing that the French fishing industry would be in much jeopardy if no such concession is made.
The stalling of trade talks between the UK and EU is very concerning, to say the least. It already seems highly unlikely any deal will be reached by Oct. 15, and perhaps after that as well. The EU has already stated that any deal will need at least two months for legal ratification, which makes Nov. 1 the very latest date at which trade talks need to cease.
But it is unlikely that an extra 15 days will give the UK government ample time to finalize a deal with the EU when there are still many points of heavy contention. While it is possible that the EU may change the deadline, it is still unlikely that Johnson, who has always been such a staunch supporter of Brexit, will push the official date to leave the EU beyond the end of the year.
Johnson recently stated that, while he hoped to finalize a deal with the EU, the country “can more than live with it” if a no-deal Brexit were to happen, according to Euronews.
It is highly irresponsible for the prime minister to make such claims because economists have argued that a “no-deal” Brexit would have a detrimental effect on the country's economy and will be compounded with the ongoing COVID-19 recession to create a perfect storm which will affect the livelihood of millions of British.
In fact, the Bank of England estimates that the economic damage will be “two to three times” worse than the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country's economy. The conservative government has repeatedly responded to any criticism of a potential “no-deal” Brexit situation as being no different to Australia’s lack of a deal with the EU, but this argument relies on a faulty premise.
Australia may not be a member of the EU, yet it certainly is aware of the innumerous benefits of having a trade deal with the customs union since the two parties have been engaged in formal negotiations to form a comprehensive trade deal, according to CNN.
This trade deal would allow Australia to gain from the easing tariffs and quotas with EU member states, which are precisely the kind of benefits that the UK will forgo if a “no-deal” Brexit becomes a reality.
There is no good outcome that is favorable to the UK from a “no-deal” Brexit even if the government has tried to convince the public otherwise. It is crucial for the UK's economic future that a deal with the EU is reached, otherwise the lasting repercussions of a “no-deal” Brexit has the potential to embroil the nation into a state of turmoil which has never been seen before.
Shubhrant Kumar is a School of Arts and Sciences senior majoring in political science. His column, "The Transatlantic Perspective," runs on alternate Tuesdays.
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